四 结语

土耳其与西方关系已经内化于土耳其的身份认同，土耳其追求多元外交与土耳其西化外交之间的摩擦将呈上升趋势。现代库尔德问题源起于英法一战后对中东秩序的划分，而伊拉克库尔德自治政府的壮大则又得益于美国的支持，正是西方极大地促成了现代库尔德问题的形成。当下，库尔德问题是西方对土耳其外交的极好杠杆，土耳其在库尔德问题上将面临着越来越多的人权指控，双方关于人权和恐怖主义的争论将会持续。未来，美国如果不能有效地防止库尔德工人党利用伊拉克北部对土耳其发动攻击，土耳其会将此解读为美国忽视土耳其核心的国家利益，从深层次上损害双方关系。叙利亚库尔德人的民主自治和伊拉克库尔德人建国可能性的陡增，进一步凸显了库尔德问题和土耳其亲西方外交之间的巨大矛盾，体现了双方中东战略和利益的根本性分歧。

理论上讲，土耳其可以通过成功地管控国内和国外的库尔德问题从而增强自身的软权力并借力于与西方的制度性联系而崛起，西方可以将一个按照自己标准发生转变的土耳其，视为真正的盟友。但实际上，土耳其与西方之间卷入越来越多的利益冲突，库尔德问题则是双边矛盾的集中表现，成为双边关系不睦的重要原因。土耳其更多地从领土和主权完整等方面来考虑问题，西方则从人权和自身在中东乃至于全球的利益等方面加以权衡，双方立场靠拢的可能性呈直线下降趋势，进而损害到土耳其成功管控库尔德问题的可能性。因此，土耳其抱怨西方没有顾及自身的国家安全，无法接受土耳其的欧洲特性，导致其反西方情绪增加。西方则批评土耳其外交的东转并不断向其施压，不愿意轻易失去昔日的这一重要盟友。库尔德问题和与西方关系是土耳其外交中的结构性问题，土耳其已经为这两个结构性问题所困，受限于自身的实力和历史，土耳其难以挣脱这一羁縻，从而延滞其实现具有全球影响力区域领袖抱负的时间。土耳其在可预见的未来很难逃离这一笼子，但土耳其可以通过增强自身实力和灵活的外交为笼子扩容，寻求与自己实力相称的地位，与此同时坐等区域和国际层面上地缘政治的大转变。近期土耳其与美国关系的紧张，以及针对库尔德武装力量的军事行动，增加了区域局势的不稳定和未来的不可预期性。不过，西方最终还是要接受奉行独立外交的土耳其。

Two Structural Problems of Turkey's Foreign Policy：Kurdish Issue and Westernization of FP

Li Bingzhong

Abstract：Turkey's foreign policy has had two significant structural dynamics since the foundation of Republic：one is the Kurdish issue and the other is the relationship with the West.Theoretically，Turkey can build its soft power through effectively management of the Kurdish issue domestically and regionally，and through building on its strong links with the West.But practically，there are more and more interest conflicts between Turkey and the West，and it has also proved complicated for Turkey to manage the Kurdish issue successfully.It is unrealistic for Turkey to break away from the cage，but it can enlarge the cage through building its power and smart foreign policy to find a place fit well with its strength，while waiting for the great transformation on the regional and international scales.If Turkey wants to break the cage violently，it is easily to cause some conflicts with neighbor countries or cause conflict with big powers.But at last，the West need to accept Turkey who pursues an independent foreign policy.

Keywords：Turkey；Kurdish Issue；Westernization of Turkey's Foreign Policy

Author Profile：Li Bingzhong is a Professor， Vice Dean of the school of History and Civilization and Director of the Center for Turkish Studies of Shaanxi Normal University， China. He was a honorary member at the Center for Arab-Islamic Civilization in Exeter University， UK. His research interests are Turkish Studies， Kurdish issue and the European Union.

---

[1]本文系国家社科基金重点项目“土耳其国家治理难题研究”的阶段性成果（项目编号： 17ASS003）。
《土耳其研究》2008年第1期（总第1期），第1～20页。

[2] Emiliano Alessandri，Ian Lesser，Kadri Tastan，“EU-Turkey Relations：Steering in Stormy Seas，” German Marshall Fund，No.31，July 2018.

[3] 国内外学术界还鲜有将库尔德问题和土耳其西化外交综合考量的文章，较多的讨论是土耳其的西化外交，20世纪90年代后有较多的学者注意到库尔德问题对土耳其外交的影响。“库尔德因素对土耳其外交有重要影响……冷战时期土耳其奉行亲西方外交，将自身的国家利益与西方绑架在一起，特别是与美国的利益。”参见Omer Taspinar，Kurdish Nationalism and Political Islam in Turkey，New York＆London：Routledge，2005，pp.166-167。土耳其曾经是西方在中东的坚定盟友，然而西方导向的土耳其凯末尔主义精英们开始质疑土耳其与西方的联系。2008年民调显示，土耳其是世界上对美国评价最低的国家。同样，土耳其大部分人都在怀疑加入欧盟的可能性。参见Philip H.Gordon and Omer Taspinar，Winning Turkey：How America，Europe and Turkey can Revive a Fading Partnership，Washington：Brookings Institution Press，2008；纵观土耳其整个现代史，其外交政策的主要目标就是成为西方的一员，成为西方真正的盟友。参见Yücel Bozdağlιoğlu，Turkish Foreign Policy and Turkish Identity：A Constructivist Approach，New York＆London：Routledge，2003，p.57。

[4]库尔德人跨境居住在土耳其、叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗境内，四国库尔德人主要聚居区在地理上联成一片，这一特点决定了库尔德问题有着强烈的区域和国际维度。

[5]土耳其西化的历史至少有200年，这种西化本质上是对西方挑战在军事、政治、经济和文化领域刺激的反应，但外交政策的西化则是较晚的现象。有学者认为，土耳其的反美主义属于主权-民族主义式的反美主义，即美国在中东过度卷入的背景下，土耳其担心主权受损，由此产生了民族主义的反弹，导致美国形象在土耳其的恶化。参见Ioannis N.Grigoriadis，“Friends No More？ The Rise of Anti-American Nationalism in Turkey，” Middle East Journal，Vol.64，No.1，Winter，2010。

[6] 反美情绪指的是土耳其与美国就相关问题产生越来越多的歧见，但并非反对美国或者美国的价值观，但这一趋势正在发生某些质变。另文讨论。

[7] George C. McGhee，“Turkey joins the West，”Foreign Affairs，1953，Vol.32，No.1.

[8] Estimate of the will and ability of Turkey to maintain its alignment with the West，and the courses of action Turkey might follow in the event of war.Central Intelligence Agency，26 Feb.1951，U.S.Declassified Documents Online，http：//tinyurl.galegroup.com/tinyurl/4yQwj2.Accessed 28 June 2017.

[9] Yucel Bozdaglioglu，Turkish Foreign Policy and Turkish Identity，Routledge，2003，p.60.

[10] 1963年希族领导人马卡里奥斯暂时中止了《祖鲁-伦敦协定》，决定重新修改宪法，意在建立一个希族全权统治下的独立的塞浦路斯国家。土耳其谋求用武力保护土族塞浦路斯利益，伊诺努总理将土方意图通知了美方。美国政府担忧土耳其武装干涉将导致土耳其和希腊间的战争，进而为苏联势力进入东地中海提供借口。为此，林登·约翰逊总统向伊诺努传递了措辞严厉且极不友好的警告，指出土耳其一旦由于此举引发苏联的介入，美国和北约都不会为土耳其的安全而战，土耳其被迫放弃该计划。

[11] Ömer.Taşpιnar，“The Anatomy of Anti-Americanism in Turkey，” The Brookings Institution，Nov.16，2005.

[12] Abbas Vali，Kurds and the State in Iran：The Making of Kurdish Identity，London：I.B.Tauris＆ Co Ltd，2011，p.38.

[13] Michael M.Gunter，“United States Foreign Policy towards the Kurds，”in The Kurdish Question in U.S.Foreign Policy，2004，p.3.

[14] Paul Henze provides Zbigniew Brzezinski with his evening report.Topics include：President Jimmy Carter's Decision to Provide Additional Economic Assistance to Turkey； Afghan Coup Plans； Ethiopian-U.S.Relations； Chinese-Ethiopian Relations； Greek Political Situation. National Security Council，26 Mar.1979，U.S.DeclassifiedDocuments Online，http：//tinyurl.galegroup.com/tinyurl/6c47c7.Accessed 2 June 2018.

[15] Ian O.Lesser，“Beyond Suspicioin，Rethinking US-Turkish Relations，”Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars，2007.

[16]Telcon，President's Meeting with Prime Minister Turgut Ozal of Turkey，1990-08-03，Bush Presidential Records，George Bush Presidential library.

[17]Telcon，Telcon with Turgut Ozal，President of Turkey，1991-04-02，Bush Presidential Records，George Bush Presidential library.

[18]Telcon，Telcon with Turgut Ozal，President of Turkey，1991-04-15， Bush Presidential Records，George Bush Presidential library.

[19]Michael M.Gunter，The Kurds：A Modern History，Princeton：Markus Wiener Publishers，2017，p.38.

[20]Telcon，Telcon with Turgut Ozal，President of Turkey，1991-06-13，Bush Presidential Records，George Bush Presidential library.

[21]Telcon，President's Meeting with Turgul Ozal，President of Turkey ，1991-07-20，Bush Presidential Records，George Bush Presidential library.

[22] Clemence Scalbert-Yucel，“The ‘Liberalization’ of Turkish Policy towards the Kurdish Language：the Influence of External Actors，” in Robert Lowe and Gareth Stansfield，eds.，The kuridsh Policy Imperative，Chatham House，2010，p.121.

[23]Michael M.Gunter，The Kurds：A Modern History，p.42.

[24]Memcon，Meeting with Prime Minister Suleyman Demirel of Turkey，President of Turkey，1992-07-09， Bush Presidential Records，George Bush Presidential library.

[25] CIA，National Intelligence Estimates，The Kurds：Rising Expectations，Old Frustrations，September 1992，Secret.

[26] CIA，National Intelligence Estimates，The Kurds：Rising Expectations，Old Frustrations，September 1992，Secret.

[27] Ofra Bengio，“The Turkish-Israeli Relationship-changing ties of Middle Eastern Outside，” Palgrave，2004，pp.9-10.

[28]Kerim Yildiz，The kurds in Turkey：EU Accession and Human Rights， London：Pluto Press，2005，pp.120-121.

[29]Ian O.Lesser，“Beyond Suspicioin，Rethinking US-Turkish Relations”.

[30] Hamit Bozarslan，“Kurds and the Turkish state，”The Cambridge History of Turkey，Vol.4，2008，p.355.

[31]Kerim Yildiz，The Kurds in Turkey：EU Accession and Human Rights， London：Pluto Press，2005，p.121.

[32]Aliza Marcus，Blood and Belief：The PKK and the Kurdish Fight for Independence，New York University press，2007，p.301.

[33]Kerim Yildiz，The Kurds in Turkey：EU Accession and Human Rights，p.119.

[34] 库尔德民主联盟党是土耳其库尔德工人党的叙利亚分支。

[35] Michael M.Gunter，The Kurds：A Modern History，p.126.

[36]“End of Peace Process Equals Disastrous Effects on Turkey's Economy，Political System：MIT Economist，”Hurriyet Daily News，Aug.4，2015.

[37]Cengiz Çandar，“Will he，won't he？ Turks ponder whether Erdogan will invade Syria，”Al-Monitor，February 2016，http：//www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/turkey-syria-united-states-possible-military-intervention.html.

[38]David L.Philios，“Research Paper：ISIS-Turkey List，” 1^st September 2015，http：//www.huffingtonpost.com/david-l-phillips/research-paper-isis-turke_b_6128950.html.

[39]Ambassador Morton Abramowitz and Ambassador Eric Edelman（Co-Chairs），“Turkey：An increasingly undependable Ally，” April 2015，Bipartisan Policy Center.

[40]Simon Tisddll，“Turkey's Rising Tention with Russian over Kurds Put Erdogan in a Corner，”The Guardian， 9 February 2016，http：//www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/09/ever-heightening-tension-putin-puts-turkey-in-a-corner.